DCA Reality Check

What dollar-cost averaging actually does — drawdowns, regrets, and all. Not a "how rich would I be" calculator.

Why this exists

Most DCA calculators show you the rosy view: pick a start year, see a big number, feel either FOMO or smug. They hide the bumpy ride and never compare against alternatives. This one shows the worst drawdown you would have lived through, what lump-summing would have done instead, and flags survivorship bias when the numbers look too good. Truth over trust.

Before you calculate: what do you think the stack would be worth at the end?
Fetching from CoinGecko…

You guessed vs. what actually happened

Your guess
$0
Actual stack value
$0
Stack value at end of period
$0
+$0 (+0%)
Total invested
$0
0 weeks of buying
Bitcoin accumulated
0 BTC
0 sats
Average buy price
$0
cost basis per BTC
Return on investment
0%
0% annualized
Max drawdown
0%
peak → trough
Lump-sum benchmark
$0
if you'd put it all in on day one

Stack value vs. cumulative invested over time

Log scale. The orange line is what you put in. The green line is what your stack was worth at each point.
Cumulative invested Stack value Peak Trough after peak

What this doesn't show

  • Trading fees, exchange spreads, withdrawal fees
  • Taxes (capital gains, income reporting)
  • Exchange failure or KYC freezes (FTX, Mt. Gox style events)
  • Lost keys, forgotten seeds, hardware failure
  • That picking a start year ≥ 2014 is itself a survivor's choice — assets that died don't show up here
  • Whether you would have actually held through the drawdown shown above

Want to do this for real, with the smaller risks managed?

Self-custody, KYC trade-offs, exchange selection — covered in the Curious path.

Learn how to buy Bitcoin safely →
Educational use only. Past performance does not predict future results. Bitcoin is volatile and you can lose money. This simulation assumes perfect weekly execution with no fees, taxes, or operational mistakes. Real outcomes will differ. Not financial advice. Historical prices: CryptoCompare daily closes, sampled weekly.

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