Activity moves to the fastest rail. Trust moves to the hardest asset. The symbiotic-sovereign thesis is testable in public: each card below states a positive prediction the thesis depends on, the quantitative threshold that would falsify it, the deadline, the public measurement source, and (new in v4) a confidence rating on the underlying data quality. Statuses update manually each quarter. The verdict updates live. If six or more falsifiers fire by end of 2028, the thesis is rejected and a successor article is published. F17 covers quantum threat materialization — the only single-event falsifier that could unilaterally invalidate Bitcoin's SoV claim, and now ties activation tracking to BIP-360 (P2MR) specifically, not the contested BIP-361 freeze proposal.
Status definitions. INTACT means the data is consistent with the thesis. PRESSURE means trending against the thesis but threshold not yet breached. FIRED means the threshold has been breached by the deadline. INDETERMINATE means contested, data unavailable, or deadline not yet arrived.
Verdict rules (v4, 17 falsifiers). 0–4 fired by end of 2028 = thesis intact. 5 fired = partial; substantive amendment article required. 6+ fired = thesis rejected; full retraction-and-rebuild published.
F17 special case. Quantum threat firing is unilaterally invalidating. If F17 fires alone, the thesis is rejected regardless of other falsifiers' status.
Confidence rating (v4). Each falsifier carries a data-quality confidence — High / Medium / Low. This is not a probability the falsifier will fire; it is the framework's confidence that the underlying data is measurable and uncontested enough to settle the question by deadline. Low-confidence falsifiers warrant especially careful narrative interpretation.
v4 definitional rewrites. Thresholds and deadlines are unchanged from v3. v4 rewrites every falsifier's definition for operational clarity (trust-tier reporting in F3 + F4, six-test sovereign rubric in F8, expanded jurisdiction set in F10, F9/F16 separation, BIP-360 reconciliation in F17, and others). Methodology-immutability rule preserved: definitions are tightened or clarified, never loosened.
Methodology immutability. Once a falsifier's measurement source and threshold are committed in a quarterly update, they cannot be revised downward to save the thesis. Revisions must be conservative (tightening) and disclosed.
Quarterly cadence. Public status review in March, June, September, December. Annual deep review in January. Any single falsifier firing triggers an out-of-cycle post within 14 days.
Correlated failures. Each quarterly review explicitly distinguishes correlated fires (one root cause cascading) from independent fires (multiple structural failures). Correlated fires are recoverable; independent fires usually are not.
State persistence. This dashboard saves your status edits in your browser only. Export to JSON for archiving or sharing.